Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 11.088318 12.398350 13.892103 15.742327 18.002695 20.715614 24.284139
2024-10-20 9.111350 10.620208 12.461270 14.928329 18.239967 22.682086 29.386964
2024-10-27 7.940684 9.492978 11.468562 14.254741 18.243684 24.045536 33.807900
2024-11-03 7.932228 9.782278 12.264270 16.005345 21.854106 31.424495 50.571480
2024-11-10 7.614543 9.599557 12.365833 16.748503 24.092220 37.364499 68.606697
2024-11-17 6.950361 8.861704 11.578376 15.998092 23.691830 38.418786 76.817402
2024-11-24 6.559610 8.470855 11.249153 15.910434 24.402133 41.857212 94.041093
2024-12-01 6.185592 8.069858 10.859114 15.658753 24.744621 44.629942 112.400903
2024-12-08 5.905035 7.782735 10.613464 15.612139 25.462955 48.549227 140.554662
2024-12-15 5.705232 7.599758 10.511190 15.796672 26.682891 54.283268 188.800746
2024-12-22 5.412861 7.255371 10.119107 15.404838 26.589686 56.403500 224.028144
2024-12-29 5.216013 7.045850 9.930394 15.367203 27.279300 61.228996 297.547170
2025-01-05 4.898931 6.643861 9.414672 14.694358 26.477298 61.309590 337.461486
2025-01-12 4.596335 6.250709 8.891098 13.960864 25.423844 60.216594 365.373984
2025-01-19 4.340114 5.918838 8.451552 13.352752 24.584729 59.633659 403.941110
2025-01-26 4.461623 6.195077 9.070687 14.930118 29.647881 85.887255 1976.603323
2025-02-02 4.426429 6.212545 9.235960 15.596716 32.554220 107.587357 35006.529001
2025-02-09 4.206411 5.912081 8.807035 14.923604 31.363174 105.654898 117947.092137
2025-02-16 4.082247 5.766524 8.652581 14.844858 31.987948 115.847964 NaN
2025-02-23 3.947127 5.596322 8.442229 14.618626 32.104760 123.170535 NaN
2025-03-02 3.844368 5.476354 8.318000 14.576704 32.822511 136.359873 NaN
2025-03-09 3.773477 5.407319 8.284716 14.742625 34.302530 159.368048 NaN
2025-03-16 3.645090 5.234035 8.043395 14.390179 33.875821 164.144069 NaN